Switzerland’s exposure to US trade policy means November’s congressional elections matter beyond Washington. A divided Congress could limit new tariffs, while a Republican sweep could leave Swiss exporters facing more of the same.
The US midterm elections on 3 November 2026 could affect Switzerland’s economy, even though Swiss voters have no say in them.
How much room does President Donald Trump have to pursue his current trade agenda?
Switzerland has already felt the impact. Trump imposed 39% tariffs on Swiss goods in 2025, which cost the Swiss economy significant momentum, even if the downturn proved temporary. Trump has also publicly criticised Switzerland, and he acknowledged imposing the tariffs partly because he disliked then-president Karin Keller-Sutter.
The key question is which party controls the House of Representatives and the Senate after November 3. Migros Bank economist Santosh Brivio told The Local that legislative control matters most for Swiss sectors with substantial US operations, such as pharmaceuticals, mechanical engineering and watchmaking.
If Democrats win both chambers, Trump’s room to manoeuvre on foreign policy would be restricted. That would be the best scenario for Switzerland.
If Republicans keep control of both chambers, the president would have freer rein to continue his trade agenda. Brivio sees potential for further escalation in that case.
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A Divided Congress
A split Congress, with one chamber held by each party, would be a middle outcome. Brivio expects existing tariffs to remain in place even then, but says implementing further restrictive measures would become more difficult.
For Swiss exporters, that would at least reduce the risk of new trade barriers. It would not remove the ones already in force.
The 39% tariff, which took effect in August 2025, was one of the most significant trade shocks Switzerland has faced in recent years. A policy brief from the Zurich University of Applied Sciences (ZHAW) estimates it could cut Swiss exports to the US by USD 9.5 billion and reduce profits by nearly USD 4 billion.
The burden falls unevenly across sectors. ZHAW projects Swiss firms facing the tariff would see average export volumes fall by 25.5%, with a weighted average decline of 34.2% when accounting for export values.
The watch industry alone is expected to lose almost USD 900 million in profits.
Not all Swiss exports were affected equally. Pharmaceuticals, semiconductors, consumer electronics and certain minerals were exempt when the tariff took effect, according to Lombard Odier.
Trump’s Tariffs On Switzerland: A Potential Tariff Reduction?
The situation may be changing. The Economic Times reports that Switzerland and the US have reached a breakthrough trade agreement that would cut the 39% tariff to 15%. US Trade Representative Jamieson Greer confirmed a deal, with Swiss officials expecting further details.
Swiss industry has already reported damage.
Swissmem says exports to the US fell 14% in the three months to the end of September, while machine tool shipments dropped 43%. A reduction to 15% would stabilise the Swiss economy and prevent job losses caused by the higher duty.
Switzerland’s economy is heavily export-oriented, and the US is a major market for its high-value goods. Sectors like pharma, machinery and watches depend on predictable access to American customers, so tariff policy translates directly into revenue and jobs.
The 2025 tariff episode showed how quickly that can change. A 39% duty on Swiss exports disrupted momentum across the economy, even if the effect was temporary.
For Swiss businesses and policymakers, the November 3 vote is less about partisan preference and more about how much friction the transatlantic trading relationship will face in 2027.
