Artificial intelligence could add 1.1% points a year to labour-productivity growth in Canton Zurich over the next decade, according to a new cantonal economic study. That is a modelled opportunity, not a gain already recorded, and it comes alongside an uneven labour-market picture. Jobseeker numbers have risen fastest in occupations most exposed to AI, though officials say they cannot establish that AI caused the increase.
For cantonal economic director Carmen Walker Späh, the potential matters partly because higher productivity could help Zurich respond to an ageing population and labour shortages.
A sizeable gain, if realised
The estimate comes from a model applied to Zurich by the Zurich University of Applied Sciences for the canton’s September Wirtschaftsmonitoring. Its central scenario puts AI’s additional annual contribution to labour-productivity growth at 1.1 % points over the next ten years. The low and high scenarios span 0.1 to 3.6% points, illustrating how much the result depends on assumptions and adoption.
For comparison, real labour productivity in the canton grew by an average of 0.5% a year over the past 25 years. The central AI estimate is more than twice that historical rate on its own; it should not be mistaken for a forecast that total productivity will grow by exactly 1.1% a year. Nor is it evidence that Zurich’s economy has already received that boost.
The model sees the largest potential in knowledge-intensive industries. In insurance, banking and financial services, and information and communications, AI could add between 1.7% and 1.8% points to annual productivity growth. Including advances in robotics raises the modelled contribution across Zurich’s economy to 1.4% points a year. The canton stresses that companies would have to deploy the technology widely and turn efficiencies into real output for those gains to materialise.
Jobseeker Figures Raise Questions
Between October 2022 and June 2026, the number of jobseekers in occupations classified as highly exposed to AI rose 118%, compared with 66% in moderately exposed occupations and 13% in less-exposed ones. Software developers, general office workers, and marketing and advertising specialists contributed particularly strongly to the increase in the highly exposed group.
Those figures describe changes in the number of jobseekers within occupational groups, not the share of workers displaced by AI. The canton explicitly warns against drawing a causal conclusion: the economic cycle, changes within industries and differences in education levels could also help explain the pattern. Overall employment has continued to rise, including relatively strong growth in occupations where AI is more likely to assist workers, such as some managerial and specialist roles.
Adoption Is Accelerating
A representative survey of more than 500 Zurich companies found that 47% now say they use generative AI systematically in their work processes, up from 27% two years earlier. Among large companies, reported use reached 83%, up from 55%; among small and medium-sized businesses, current use ranges from 45% to 64%, depending on company size.
The canton says it is working with the Swiss Data Science Center on a programme to help SMEs exchange knowledge and adopt AI. Its AI innovation sandbox also lets companies, start-ups and researchers test projects with the administration under real-world conditions.
Whether it delivers that benefit, and how evenly it is shared across workers and firms, remains an open question rather than a conclusion of the report.
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