The Swiss government’s Expert Group on Business Cycles has nearly doubled its 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.7%, up from 0.9% in June, after unexpectedly strong second-quarter data, while cautioning that much of the surge came from volatile pharmaceutical and chemical output that is unlikely to be repeated.
The State Secretariat for Economic Affairs (SECO) announced the update on 17 September 2026. The Federal Government Expert Group on Business Cycles now expects real GDP growth (adjusted for sporting events) of 1.7% for 2026, compared with its previous estimate of 0.9% made in June. The forecast for 2027 was left unchanged at 1.6%.
Alongside GDP, the group also updated its outlook on prices and the labour market. Inflation is expected to remain at 0.6% in both 2026 and 2027, while the unemployment rate is forecast at 3.1% in 2026 and 3.0% in 2027.
The revision follows what SECO describes as exceptionally strong Swiss GDP growth in the second quarter of 2026, alongside a general brightening of economic indicators. However, the expert group cautions that nearly half of that second-quarter strength came from the highly volatile chemical and pharmaceutical sector, which likely overstated the underlying momentum of the broader economy.
Because of this composition effect, federal economists expect a “certain countertrend” in the second half of 2026, meaning the pace of growth seen in Q2 is not expected to continue unabated.
Weaker Franc Supports Exporters
Beyond the one-off pharmaceutical boost, SECO points to the recent depreciation of the Swiss franc as a genuine tailwind, since a weaker currency improves competitiveness for Swiss exporters. This is cited as one of the factors keeping the broader recovery on track even as the chemical-sector effect fades.
SECO’s expert group flags several risks that could still derail the improved outlook. The ongoing conflict linked to Iran, elevated energy prices, and continuing trade-policy uncertainty are named as sources of significant downside risk. The statement specifically warns that persistently high oil prices could place substantial strain on the global economy and would also push Swiss inflation higher than currently forecast.
Switzerland’s Federal Government Expert Group has also cautioned that the conflict in the Middle East, high energy prices and trade-policy uncertainty pose significant risks to the outlook.
Switzerland Raises 2026 Growth Forecast: “A Degree Of Correction” In The Second Half Of 2026
Despite the expected correction, the economy remains broadly on track for recovery.
The Expert Group is notably cautious about reading too much into the strong second-quarter number. Almost half of that growth was attributable to the highly volatile value added of the chemical and pharmaceutical industry, accompanied by a sharp rise in exports — meaning the headline figure likely overstates the economy’s underlying momentum. As a result, the group expects “a degree of correction” in the second half of 2026.
Even accounting for that expected correction, the Federal Council states the economy remains broadly on track for recovery, and the strength of the first half prompted the marked upward revision to the full-year forecast.
Foreign trade is now expected to contribute more strongly to 2026 growth than the Expert Group anticipated in June, reflecting both the robust performance already seen and a somewhat more favorable global economic environment. The recent depreciation of the Swiss franc is also cited as a specific support for the exchange-rate-sensitive parts of the export sector.
Domestic demand is expected to expand moderately as before: rising utilization of production capacity is supporting investment activity, and private consumption should continue growing at a moderate pace.
The Federal Council expects a further pickup in global demand in 2027, with the rest of Europe, Germany in particular, continuing to recover from recent economic weakness, a trend expected to benefit the Swiss economy as well.
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