A 12 May 2026 research study by Switzerland’s third-largest banking group, Raiffeisen, found that while the 1973 oil crisis triggered a deep recession, massive inflation, and structural change, the effects of the 2026 oil crisis can be mitigated by the Swiss.
In fact, the report predicts real GDP growth of around 0.5-1% is still expected for 2026. “Even in the worst-case scenario, the growth path remains positive and thus significantly more robust than during the oil crisis of the 1970s.”
“Thanks to decades of structural adjustment, Switzerland is now more resilient and among the world leaders in energy efficiency,” the report said.
“The 1973 oil crisis hit the Swiss economy extremely hard. Today, thanks to decades of structural change, the starting point is far less critical,” explains Fredy Hasenmaile, Chief Economist of Raiffeisen Switzerland.
No Recession In Sight
The Raiffeisen research found that even in the worst-case scenario, the growth path remains positive and thus significantly more robust than during the 1970s oil crisis.
“Despite the current oil crisis, the Swiss economy remains on a growth trajectory. Our scenarios show that even with persistently high energy prices, slower but still slightly positive growth is possible,” explains Hasenmaile.
In 1973, Real gross domestic product (GDP) shrank by around 7% in 1975, inflation reached historic highs of almost 10%, and around 244,000 jobs were lost in the industrial sector between 1970 and 1980.
The 1973 crisis triggered an abrupt structural transformation and shaped both Swiss and international energy policy for decades.
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“Among the most energy-efficient economies in the world”
The Swiss have come a long way from 1970s as report finds that the situation is fundamentally different now.
Oil now accounts for around 46% of energy consumption, and the energy intensity of the Swiss economy has more than halved since the 1970s.
Switzerland imports the bulk of its oil and gas from Norway, the Netherlands, and rerouted volumes that once flowed from Russia, now reaching Swiss infrastructure via European pipelines and liquefied natural gas terminals. The country has no meaningful direct exposure to Middle Eastern crude, and the Strait of Hormuz, the narrow waterway through which roughly 20% of global LNG passes, does not sit on Switzerland’s primary supply routes.
That geographic and contractual distance is paying dividends. As of May 2026, no fuel shortages have been reported. Gas storage entered the current period at approximately 80% capacity, a level built up through reforms introduced after the 2022 energy crisis. Strategic oil reserves cover more than 90 days of national needs, a buffer that gives authorities room to manage price spikes without emergency rationing.
LNG infrastructure across the EU has expanded by roughly 50% since 2022, and Switzerland, connected to European grids, benefits from that added capacity without having built a single terminal of its own. It is a quiet dividend of integration
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Switzerland Needs To Work Towards Being More Energy-Independent
The report pointed to potential winners in this 2026 energy crisis. “In Switzerland, this is particularly true for commodity trading. Three of the world’s leading commodity traders are headquartered in Switzerland. They benefit from increased global volatility and have already demonstrated this in previous crises. Although the sector accounts for only a small share of total employment, it contributes significantly to higher tax revenues in certain regions. Furthermore, it can have a stabilizing effect on GDP during times of crisis.”
But the Swiss Confederation still imports 68% of its energy, primarily oil and natural gas.
“While the economy, and especially industry, has significantly reduced its oil dependency through efficiency gains and structural shifts, fossil fuel consumption remains high in households and particularly in transportation,” the report said. “Around three-quarters of total oil consumption is currently attributable to transportation, with the remainder largely coming from oil heating systems.”
At the same time, the export share of GDP has almost doubled since 1970, making Switzerland significantly more dependent on the global economy today. A worldwide economic downturn can therefore affect Switzerland even if energy prices for domestic production are generally manageable. A part of this dependence has thus remained, merely changing its form.
We strive for Swiss precision. Let us know if there’s a perspective we should add: editor@helveticatimes.com
